Home Prices Just Climbed in 80% of the Country. Here's What That Actually Means on Our Stretch of the Gulf Coast.
The National Association of REALTORS® dropped its second-quarter numbers on August 4, and the headline is simple: home prices rose in 80% of U.S. metro markets in Q2 2026, up from 71% in the first quarter. The national median price for an existing single-family home hit $434,900, a 1.5% jump year-over-year — three times the pace of growth we saw in Q1.
Five percent of metros posted double-digit gains. Sales picked up in three of the four major regions, with the South leading thanks to steady job growth. The Northeast was the outlier, held back by slower hiring and prices that outran what local incomes could support. Out West, prices actually dipped slightly.
Here's the part that matters more than the headline: affordability is quietly improving, even with prices climbing. NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun pointed to rising incomes outpacing home price growth as the reason. The typical family is now putting 23.8% of their income toward a mortgage payment, down from 25.5% a year ago. First-time buyers have seen a similar shift — 35.9% of income now, down from 38.4%. And the typical monthly payment on a home bought with 20% down actually came in $52 cheaper than a year ago, even though rates ticked up during the quarter.
So: prices up, but the squeeze on buyers easing a little. That's the national story. Now let's talk about what it looks like right here.
How Our Markets Stack Up
I pulled current numbers for the six markets I work every day — Perdido Key, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Orange Beach, and Gulf Shores. A word of caution before you dive in: these are local snapshots from Zillow and Redfin, not the NAR metro report itself, so treat them as a temperature check rather than an apples-to-apples comparison with the national figure above.
Pensacola is holding remarkably steady. The Zillow home value index sits around $274K, up a modest 0.5% year-over-year, while homes currently listed are asking closer to $306-308K. That gap between what's selling and what's listed tells you buyers still have room to negotiate — this remains one of the more affordable coastal entry points in Northwest Florida.
Navarre is a mixed bag depending on which slice you look at. Average home value is up slightly (about 0.7% year-over-year per Zillow, near $418K), but list prices have softened month-to-month, down roughly 3-4% from a year ago to a median around $459K. Homes are also sitting longer — into the 70-120 day range depending on the data source. Translation: it's shifted toward a buyer's market.
Perdido Key has cooled the most of the bunch. Median sale price over the trailing three months sits around $607K, down about 6.6% from the same stretch last year, and days on market have stretched to roughly 136 — up from 91. If you're a buyer who's been priced out here in past years, this is worth a serious look. If you're selling, pricing realistically from day one matters more than it did two years ago.
Gulf Shores looks a lot like Pensacola — stable, not surging. Zillow has the average value around $452K, down about 2% year-over-year, and Redfin's recent sales put the median near $458K, essentially flat. Days on market have actually improved compared to last year, which suggests the market found its footing.
Orange Beach is the one market on this list still showing real upward pressure. Median sale price over the trailing three months is around $690K, up 6.1% year-over-year, with price per square foot up over 5%. That strength is coming with a trade-off, though — days on market have climbed to around 100, well above where they sat a year ago. Buyers have more time to make a decision than the headline price growth might suggest.
Pensacola Beach condo activity continues to trade heavily on building, floor, and gulf-front exposure rather than a single neighborhood median — if you're watching a specific building, that's a conversation worth having directly rather than leaning on an area-wide number.
What This Means If You're Buying, Selling, or Just Watching
If you're a buyer, the story right now is patience pays. Days on market are up almost everywhere on this list except Gulf Shores, which means less pressure to waive inspections or bid over ask. If you're a seller, especially in Perdido Key or Navarre, pricing to the market — not to what your neighbor got two summers ago — is what gets a deal done in a reasonable window.
If you're watching from the sidelines wondering whether this is a good time to make a move on the Gulf Coast, the honest answer is: it depends entirely on the property, the building, and your timeline. That's not a dodge — it's just how a market like ours works, where HOA financials, insurance costs, and short-term rental rules can swing the math on two units in the same building.
Want me to run the numbers on a specific address, building, or neighborhood? That's the conversation I'm happy to have.
— Pete King, Team Perdido
Source: National Association of REALTORS®, Q2 2026 Metropolitan Median Area Prices and Affordability report (released August 4, 2026); local figures via Zillow Home Value Index and Redfin market data, current as of publication.
